Four scenarios to fight Corona, the first of which is the worst

The "Washington Post" newspaper presented 4 scenarios to confront the Corona virus, warning that the continuation of the movement of the public without restrictions, will cause a large outbreak that makes it difficult to control virus Later.

The simulation, in terms of numbers, showed a general picture of the spread of the Corona virus during the coming period in the United States.

Currently, the number of infections is increasing at a steady pace, if it continues on this approach, and 100 million people will be infected with the virus by next May, so 4 scenarios have been developed to deal.

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Assuming that the disease appears in a village of 200 people, if they are left to move unsupervised, 135 people will be infected before the first infected person recovers.

As for the second assumption, which is if the mandatory quarantine is imposed, as was imposed in Hubei Province in China, the spread of the virus will be slower, and 70 people out of 200 will be infected, before the first infected person recovers.

The third assumption, which is what is being advised now, which is staying at home and avoiding public gatherings, will lead to the spread of the disease much slower, as for every 68 infected people, the same number of those who recover will stand.

The fourth assumption is the most successful but the most difficult, called strict spacing, and allows one person in eight to move. In this case, 8 people will not be infected in the first place. For every 148 injured, 32 recover.

The newspaper says that the simulation is not conclusive, but it gives an idea of ​​the best way to confront the global pandemic.