Inā make ʻo Kim Jong Un, ʻo wai ka mea e alakaʻi iā North Korea ma hope ona?

Ke kamaʻilio nei mākou e pili ana i kahi ʻāina pohihihi e like me North Korea, pono e makaʻala, ʻo ke aupuni o North Korea, ka mea i manaʻo iā ia iho ʻo Korea maoli a ʻo ka hoʻoilina o ke Aupuni Hermit i ke kenekulia ʻumikūmāiwa, ua hoʻolilo iā ia iho i kekahi o kona mau pou. ka mea ma ka hana e alakaʻi ai i kahi kaʻawale i paʻakikī loa ka loaʻa ʻana o ka ʻike hilinaʻi.

ʻO ka mua, e hele kāua i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo. Ua ʻōlelo ʻia ka speculation in dailynk, i hoʻomākaukau ʻia e ka poʻe haʻalele ʻo North Korea ma Seoul, ʻo ke kumu i hiki ʻole ai iā Kim ke hele i ka ʻahaʻaina ma ʻApelila 15, ka lā hānau o kona kupuna kāne a me ka mea nāna i hoʻokumu i ka moʻokūʻauhau ʻo Kim Il Sung, ʻo ia ke ʻoki puʻuwai. ʻōnaehana vascular ʻekolu lā ma mua ma ka Halemai ʻĀpana Pyongyang ʻĀkau.

Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mea pohihihi ma hope o ka hōʻoia ʻana o CNN, ma hope o ka huli ʻana i kāna mau kumu ponoʻī, ke nānā nei nā lawelawe naʻauao US i ke kūlana. Wahi a kēlā ʻatikala, hiki i ke ola o Kim ke "pilikia nui" ma hope o ka hana.

Nui nā mea kānalua. ʻO ka mea mua, ʻo ka Daily NK hōʻike ʻo Kim Jong Un "e hoʻomau nei i ka hoʻōla ʻana mai ka maʻi ma kahi kauhale ma waho o Pyongyang," a "ua hoʻi ka hapa nui o nā kauka i Pyongyang ma hope o ka manaʻo ʻana o ke kūlana o Kim." No laila, aia. ʻaʻole ia he pilikia kokoke i ka make.

ʻO ka lua, a ʻo ka mea nui paha, ua mālie nā hoalauna o North Korea. "I kēia manawa, ʻaʻohe hōʻailona maʻamau i ʻike ʻia ma loko o North Korea," i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka ʻōlelo a ke keʻena pelekikena o South Korea ʻo Kang Min-seok. ʻO kahi kumu mai ka International Communications Department, ke kino o ka Chinese Communist Party i kuleana no nā hihia o North Korea, i haʻi aku iā Reuters ʻaʻole ʻo ia i manaʻoʻiʻo aia ʻo Kim i kahi kūlana koʻikoʻi.

ʻO ka lua, a ʻo ka mea nui paha, ua mālie nā hoalauna o North Korea. "I kēia manawa, ʻaʻohe hōʻailona maʻamau i ʻike ʻia ma loko o North Korea," wahi a ka ʻōlelo a ke keʻena pelekikena o South Korea ʻo Kang Min-seok. ʻO kahi kumu mai ka International Communications Department, ke kino o ka Chinese Communist Party i kuleana no nā hihia o North Korea, i haʻi aku iā Reuters ʻaʻole ʻo ia i manaʻoʻiʻo aia ʻo Kim i kahi kūlana koʻikoʻi.

ʻO ka mea hope loa, pono e hoʻomanaʻo ʻia nā lono kumu ʻole e pili ana i nā maʻi o nā alakaʻi o North Korea mai ka hoʻokumu ʻia ʻana o ka Democratic People's Republic of Korea i ka makahiki 1948. I loko o nā makahiki, ua ʻōlelo ʻia ua loaʻa ʻo Kim Il-sung i ka lolo lolo ma muli o kahi ʻano nui ʻē i loko o kona poʻo, ʻo ia ka mea ma muli o ka ʻai ʻole i kona wā kamaliʻi.

I ka makahiki 2014, hūnā ʻo Kim Jong Un iā ia iho no hoʻokahi mahina a me ka hapa e ʻike hou ʻia, me ka ʻole o ka wehewehe ʻana e pili ana i ke ʻano o kona ʻeha (manaʻo kekahi poʻe loea ua loaʻa paha ʻo ia i ka maʻi gout ikaika, ʻoiai ʻo ka naʻauao ʻo South Korea i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i nā wāwae Kiss Fatty. ).

Eia naʻe, ʻike ʻia ka pilikia o ka naʻau i loko o ka ʻohana. Ua make kona makuakāne, ʻo Kim Jong Il, i ka maʻi puʻuwai i ka makahiki 2011. Ua makemake paha ʻo Kina a me South Korea i ka noho mālie ma kahi ʻano ʻaʻohe mea i mākaukau, i kēia manawa emi. ma mua o ka manawa. .

me ka maopopo ole o ka hooilina

ʻO ka pilikia nui, ʻaʻole i loaʻa i North Korea kahi pelekikena ʻaʻole pili i ka lālā kāne o ka ʻohana Kim. ʻAʻohe keiki kāne ʻo Kim, a inā paha he mea i manaʻo ʻole ʻia i ʻae ʻia ka hui conservative North Korea e alakaʻi ʻia e kahi wahine, ʻo kāna kaikamahine hoʻokahi, ʻo Kim Joo A, he 7 mau makahiki wale nō.

A inā i manaʻo kekahi aupuni ʻē e hiki iā ia ke pāʻani i kāna kaikunāne ʻo Kim Yong Nam, ʻo ia wale nō ke koho ʻoiaʻiʻo i ka holomua o ka ʻohana, ua hoʻopau ʻia ko lākou manaʻolana ma muli o kāna ʻawaʻawa weliweli ma Kuala Lumpur Airport.

Ma hope o ka make ʻana o Kim Jong Il, ua kālele nā ​​loiloi āpau i ka hiki o kona hoʻoilina ke noho i ka mana, akā ʻaʻohe mea kānalua i ka hoʻololi ʻana o ke alakaʻi. ʻO ka nalo ʻana o Kim Jong Un i nā kumu kūlohelohe a i ʻole kekahi kumu ʻē aʻe ke hāpai nei i kahi nīnau ʻokoʻa loa, a ʻaʻole paha.

I ka makahiki 2009, i mua o ka emi ʻana o ke olakino o ke kiaʻāina ʻo Kim Jong Il, a ʻaʻohe mea i hoʻoholo ʻia, ua hoʻomākaukau ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa no nā ʻĀina ʻē (CFR) i kahi hōʻike kūikawā e pili ana i ka "Preparations for Sudden Change in North. Korea." Ua hana lākou i ka nalo ʻana o ke alakaʻi.

ʻO ka lawe ʻana i ke ʻano hoʻohālike Kina

Ma waena o nā hiʻohiʻona āna i wehewehe ai: ʻO ke kūleʻa o ka caliphate (ke koho i lanakila hope, e like me kā mākou e ʻike ai), kahi koho ʻē aʻe i kūkākūkā ʻia e kekahi mau mea nui o ke aupuni a hoʻokumu i kahi hakakā mana i pau i ka hāʻule. I kēia lā, e like ke kūlana me ka wā ma mua.

Ua manaʻo ʻo Paul R. Gregory, he loea ma ka Hoover Institution, kekahi o nā mea hoʻonaʻauao i noʻonoʻo nui i ka mea e hiki mai ana ma North Korea ma hope o Kim, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻo ke ʻano o ke ʻano o ke alakaʻi ʻana i hui pū ʻia e ke alakaʻi o ka Workers' Party. ʻO Korea, i alakaʻi ʻia paha e "ka mea kaulana loa i waena o kona mau hoa." E like me Kina kokoke.

Ua kākau ʻo Gregory ma Forbes: "ʻO nā ʻano like ʻole o ka mōʻaukala me ka USSR a me Kina e hōʻike ana e lanakila ʻo Kim e kahi ʻano ʻano o ke aupuni collectivist, a me ke ʻano o nā pōʻai o ka mana Soviet a me Kina ma hope o ka make ʻana o Stalin lāua ʻo Mao (...) Hōʻike ʻo ia ʻaʻole hiki i ka hoʻololi aupuni ma North Korea ke alakaʻi i kahi alakaʻi ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, akā e hoʻomaka ʻo ia e neʻe i kahi alakaʻi koʻikoʻi.

He ʻano pōʻino loa ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa mana no North Korea, no laila ʻo ka hopena ʻoi loa ke hoʻāʻo nei nā luna kiʻekiʻe o ke aupuni e hana wikiwiki e lawe i nā mea i ko lākou mau lima ponoʻī.

ʻO ka hoʻokūkū lōʻihi, a me ka ʻino paha

Akā pehea inā ʻaʻohe ʻaelike i loaʻa i ke alakaʻi? Ua ʻōlelo ka hōʻike: "E hoʻowalewale paha kēia i kekahi poʻe a i ʻole nā ​​​​ʻaoʻao e hopu i ka mana, e alakaʻi ana i kahi hakakā a me ka hakakā ʻino no ke alakaʻi. ʻAʻole hiki ke wānana i ke ʻano o ka hopena, a me ke ʻano o North Korea e lawe ai e like me ia, akā ʻo ka hoʻokūkū hoʻokūkū lōʻihi a hoʻomāinoino paha no ke kūʻokoʻa ma Pyongyang e hoʻokumu i ka haunaele nui i ke koena o ka ʻāina, i hāʻawi ʻia i ke kiʻekiʻe o ka ʻāina. ua hoomaluia mai ke kikowaena.

ʻO kēlā me kēia pōʻino politika kūloko i keakea i nā lawelawe maʻamau ma North Korea, kahi i hoʻomanaʻo ʻia ai ka wī i ka makahiki XNUMX, e hoʻoulu i ka nalu o ka poʻe mahuka i Kina a me South Korea. A ma laila, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka paʻa ʻole: ʻo ka hoʻoweliweli ʻana o South Korea a i ʻole ʻAmelika i ka ʻĀkau e hiki ke alakaʻi i ka hana ʻana o Beijing a me ka noho pūʻali koa o North Korea.

Ua hoʻohui ʻia ka hōʻike: "ʻO ka hiki ke hoʻopili ʻia ʻo North Korea e South Korea a me ka waiho ʻana o nā pūʻali koa US ma ka palena ʻākau o Kina he mea hopohopo nui (no Beijing). Ua kōkua nā manaʻo like i ke komo ʻana o Kina i ke Kaua Korea. Kaʻana like ʻo Moscow i nā hopohopo o Beijing, akā ʻaʻole makemake nui ʻo Rūsia e komo inā e pōʻino ke kūlana. I kēia hihia, e hoʻokau ʻia kēia mau kūlana i kahi pilikia honua nui.

Mai manaʻo i nā kipi

ʻO ka mea hiki iā mākou ke hoʻoholo i waho, ʻo ia kekahi ʻano kipi kaulana e hoʻokahuli i ke aupuni dictator. ʻO ke aupuni hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻonohonoho i kahi kūʻē kūloko me ka ʻole e wehe koke ʻia a wehe ʻia. ʻOiai inā he hāʻule, ʻaʻole hiki ke neʻe i ka holomua.

ʻO ka mea kākau moʻolelo New Zealand ʻo Anna Fifield, ka mea kākau o kahi moʻolelo o Kim "ka hoʻoilina nui", ka mea i huakaʻi i North Korea i nā manawa he nui, e wehewehe ana i ke kūlana ma kahi hālāwai ninaninau penei: "ʻOiai he nui nā North Korea e hōʻole i ka manaʻo o kahi hapakolu. -ke alakaʻi hanauna a ʻike i ka mea i ʻōlelo ʻia e pili ana iā ia he mea noʻonoʻo ʻAʻohe mea kūʻē ma North Korea. ʻAʻohe North Korean Solzhenitsyn, ʻaʻohe samizdat (kahi ʻano kākau a paʻi ʻana i hana malū ʻia e ka poʻe kūʻē Soviet i ka USSR mua e kūʻē i ka censorship), ʻaʻole hoʻi kekahi palapala.

Hoʻohui hou ʻo Fifield: "I koʻu nīnau ʻana i kahi wahine nāna i haʻi mai iaʻu e pili ana i kona mālama ʻole ʻana i ka ʻōnaehana a no ke aha ʻaʻole e hoʻāʻo nei nā North Korea e hana i kekahi mea e pili ana i ia mea, ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia inā e kūʻē ʻoe i ka ʻōnaehana ʻaʻole ʻoe e hoʻāʻo e hoʻololi. ke hoao wale nei oe e pakele. ʻO kēia no ka mea ʻoi loa ka paʻakikī o ka ʻōnaehana hoʻopaʻi o North Korea: Inā hōʻino ʻoe i ka ʻōnaehana, hiki iā ʻoe ke hoʻouna aku i ʻekolu hanauna o kou ʻohana i ke gulag (kahi hoʻomoana o North Korea no ka Soviet Union).

He hoolewa nunui.. no ka wā e hiki mai ana

ʻO ka hoʻohālikelike, inā loaʻa kekahi ʻano hoʻololi, e hana ʻia i nā manawa maikaʻi loa. Ma South Korea, ua koho hou ʻia ʻo Pelekikena Moon Jae-in, ka mea e kākoʻo ana i kahi pilina me Pyongyang, e ka hapa nui loa. Aia pū ka Hale Paʻa i kahi ʻano conciliatory ma hope o ka Pelekikena Donald Trump i kākau ai iā Kim Jong Un i ka hopena o Malaki ma ka hāʻawi ʻana iā ia i ke kōkua US i ka hakakā ʻana i ka coronavirus, e hōʻemi ana i ka hopena o ka backlash. Malia paha e hoʻokipa ʻia kahi hoʻololi mālie ma waho. Eia kekahi, hiki iā ia ke hilinaʻi i ke kākoʻo mai nā ʻaoʻao āpau, ma waena o nā kuʻuna kuʻuna o Pyongyang a ma waena o kāna mau hoa hakakā.

"He mea maʻalahi ka hewa e pili ana i kēia," wahi a John Delury, ke kaukaʻi o ka pilina pili honua ma ke Kulanui ʻo Yonsei ma Seoul, e pili ana i ke olakino o Kim Jong Un ma kahi ʻatikala no CNN. E ola hou ana ʻo Kim, me ka manaʻo ʻana ua pololei ka ʻike e pili ana i kāna ʻoki ʻana i ka wā mua, akā aia i kēia manawa kahi koho ʻaʻole.

Hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo, i kēia hihia, ua lilo ka ʻĀkau Korea i hale hoʻolewa nui e hōʻike ana i kona ʻeha ma ke ākea - ʻoiaʻiʻo a i manaʻo ʻia paha - a hoʻonui ʻia no nā lā, e like me ia ma hope o ka make ʻana o kona makuakāne a me kona kupuna kāne. Mai laila e hoʻomaka ai ka mea ʻike ʻole, a ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ke koena o ka honua e hoʻomaka e noʻonoʻo e pili ana.