Ukuba uKim Jong Un uyasweleka, ngubani oza kukhokela iNorth Korea emva kwakhe?

Xa sithetha ngelizwe elingaqondakaliyo elifana neNorth Korea, umntu kufuneka alumke.Ulawulo lwaseNorth Korea, oluzithatha njengeKorea yokwenyani kunye nendlalifa yeHermit Kingdom kwinkulungwane yeshumi elinesithoba, yenze ukwanelisa enye yeentsika zayo. nto leyo ekhokelela ekubeni umntu abe yedwa eyenze kwanzima kakhulu ukufumana ulwazi oluthembekileyo.

Okokuqala, makhe sifumane izibakala. Intelekelelo kwi-daink, elungiselelwe ngabaphambukeli baseNyakatho Korea eSeoul, yabanga ukuba isizathu sokuba uKim angakwazi ukuya kwiminyhadala nge-15 ka-Epreli, usuku lokuzalwa lukatatomkhulu wakhe kunye nomseki wobukhosi bukaKim Il Sung, kukuba uye wenziwa utyando lwentliziyo. Inkqubo yemithambo yegazi kwiintsuku ezintathu ngaphambili kwiSibhedlele sePhondo saseNorth Pyongyang.

Imfihlakalo yonyuka emva kokuba i-CNN iqinisekisile, emva kokubhenela kwimithombo yayo, ukuba iinkonzo zobuntlola zase-US zibeke iliso kwimeko. Ngokutsho kweli nqaku, ubomi bukaKim busenokuba “sengozini enkulu” emva kotyando.

Zininzi izinto ezikrokrisayo. Eyokuqala kukuba i-Daily NK inika ingxelo yokuba uKim Jong Un "uyaqhubeka nokuchacha ekuguleni kwilali engaphandle kwePyongyang," kwaye "oogqirha abaninzi babuyele ePyongyang emva kokuba imeko kaKim ibonwa izinzile." bekungayi kuba yingozi yokufa.

Okwesibini, kwaye mhlawumbi kubaluleke kakhulu, abamelwane baseNorth Korea bazolile. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, akukho zimpawu zingaqhelekanga zifunyenweyo ngaphakathi eNyakatho Korea,” satsho isithethi seofisi kamongameli waseSouth Korea uKang Min-seok. Umthombo ovela kwiSebe lezoNxibelelwano lwamazwe ngamazwe, i-Chinese Communist Party ejongene nemicimbi yaseNyakatho Korea, yatshela iReuters ukuba akakholelwa ukuba uKim ukwimeko embi.

Okwesibini, kwaye mhlawumbi kubaluleke kakhulu, abamelwane baseNorth Korea bazolile. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, akukho zimpawu zingaqhelekanga zifunyenweyo ngaphakathi eNyakatho Korea,” satsho isithethi seofisi kamongameli waseSouth Korea uKang Min-seok. Umthombo ovela kwiSebe lezoNxibelelwano lwamazwe ngamazwe, i-Chinese Communist Party ejongene nemicimbi yaseNyakatho Korea, yatshela iReuters ukuba akakholelwa ukuba uKim ukwimeko embi.

Ekugqibeleni, kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba amahemuhemu angenasiseko malunga nezigulo zeenkokeli zaseNyakatho Korea aye ahlala engaguquki ukususela ekusekweni kweDemocratic People's Republic of Korea ngo-1948. ubunzima obungaqhelekanga entlokweni yakhe, eyayibangelwa kukungondleki kwasebuntwaneni bakhe.

Ngo-2014, uKim Jong Un wazifihla inyanga enesiqingatha ukuba aphinde avele, kungekho nkcazo enikwe nayiphi na imeko malunga nemeko awayeyifumene (ezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba usenokuba wahlaselwa yi-gout enzima, nangona ubukrelekrele baseMzantsi Korea bubhekiselele kwi-Kiss Fatty feet. ).

Nangona kunjalo, iingxaki zentliziyo zibonakala zihamba kwintsapho. Uyise, uKim Jong Il, wabulawa sisifo senhliziyo ngo-2011. I-China kunye noMzantsi Korea banokuba nomdla wokugcina ukuzola kwimeko apho kungekho mntu ulungeleyo, ngoku ngaphantsi. kunakuqala..

ngaphandle kwemfuzo ecacileyo

Ingxaki enkulu kukuba iNorth Korea ayizange ibe nomongameli ongeyena owesebe lamadoda osapho lukaKim. UKim akanabo oonyana, kwaye nokuba kwenzeka into engalindelekanga apho uluntu lwaseNyakatho Korea luvuma ukukhokelwa ngumfazi, intombi yakhe ekuphela kwayo, uKim Joo A, uneminyaka eyi-7 kuphela.

Kwaye ukuba nawaphi na amandla angaphandle anethemba lokuba angakwazi ukudlala iqhinga kumntakwabo uKim Yong Nam, ekuphela kwendlela yokwenyani kulandelelwano losapho, amathemba abo atshitshiswa yityhefu yakhe eyoyikekayo eKuala Lumpur Airport.

Emva kokufa kukaKim Jong Il, lonke uhlalutyo lugxininise kwindlalifa yakhe yokuhlala enegunya, kodwa akukho mntu uthandabuzayo ukuba ukuhanjiswa kobunkokeli. Ukunyamalala kukaKim Jong Un kwizizathu zendalo okanye esinye isizathu kuphakamisa umbuzo owahluke ngokupheleleyo, okanye mhlawumbi akunjalo.

Ngo-2009, ejongene nokuwohloka okubonakalayo kwimpilo yerhuluneli ngelo xesha uKim Jong Il, kwaye kungekho lulandelelwano luza kuqinisekiswa, iBhunga lase-United States lezoBudlelwane bamazwe angaphandle (CFR) lilungiselele ingxelo ekhethekileyo "Amalungiselelo oTshintsho oluKhawuleza eMntla. Korea. " Bajongana nomba wokuduka kwale nkokeli.

Ukwamkelwa kwemodeli yaseTshayina

Phakathi kweemeko azichazileyo zezi zilandelayo: Ukulandelelana kwe-caliphate (ukhetho olwaphumelela ekugqibeleni, njengoko sisazi), enye inketho eyaxoxwa ngezinye iinkalo eziphambili zolawulo kwaye yavelisa umzabalazo wamandla owaphela ngokusilela. Namhlanje, imeko iya kufana nangaphambili.

UPaul R. Gregory, isifundiswa kwiHoover Institution, esinye sezifundiswa eziye zacinga esidlangalaleni malunga nokuya kwenzeka eNyakatho Korea emva kukaKim, ukholelwa ukuba eyona meko inokwenzeka luhlobo oluthile lobunkokeli ekwabelwana ngalo nobunkokeli beQela labasebenzi. waseKorea, mhlawumbi ekhokelwa “ngoyena ubalaseleyo phakathi koontanga bakhe.” Ngokufanayo neTshayina eselumelwaneni.

UGregory ubhala athi kwiForbes: “Imbali efanayo efana neUSSR neTshayina ibonisa ukuba uKim uya kulandelwa luhlobo oluthile lorhulumente weqela elimanyeneyo, nokuziphatha kwesangqa samagunya eSoviet neTshayina emva kokufa kukaStalin noMao (...) ibonisa ukuba utshintsho lolawulo eNyakatho Korea aluzukwenza inkokeli embi kakhulu, kodwa iya kuqala ukuya kubunkokeli obungenabutshaba. ”

I-vacuum yamandla iya kuba yimeko eyingozi kakhulu eNyakatho Korea, ngoko ke esona siphumo sinokubakho kukuba amagosa aphezulu kurhulumente azama ukwenza ngokukhawuleza ukuthatha izinto ezandleni zabo.

Ukhuphiswano olude, kwaye mhlawumbi lunobundlobongela

Kodwa kuthekani ukuba akukho sivumelwano sifikelelwa kubunkokeli? Le ngxelo ithi: “Oku kusenokuhenda abantu abathile okanye amaqela athile ukuba athabathe igunya, nto leyo ekhokelela kumlo onokwenzeka nonogonyamelo wobunkokeli. Akunakwenzeka ukuqikelela ukuba isiphumo siya kuba yintoni, kwaye loluphi ulwalathiso olunokuthi iNorth Korea ithathe ngokufanelekileyo, kodwa ukhuphiswano olude nolunobundlobongela obunobundlobongela ePyongyang ngokungathandabuzekiyo luya kudala uxinzelelo olukhulu kwilizwe liphela, xa kunikwa inqanaba ilizwe elikulo. ilawulwa ukusuka embindini.”

Nayiphi na intlekele yezopolitiko yasekhaya ethintele iinkonzo ezisisiseko eNyakatho Korea, apho inkumbulo yendlala ngeminyaka yoo-XNUMX isentsha, iya kuvelisa amaza eembacu kuzo zombini i-China kunye noMzantsi Korea. Kwaye apho, ukungazinzi kuya kuba kukhulu ngakumbi: isoyikiso sokungenelela kwaseMzantsi Korea okanye eMelika eNyakatho kunokukhokelela ekungeneleleni kweBeijing kunye nokuhlala kwemikhosi yaseNyakatho Korea.

Ingxelo yongeze ngelithi: “Ithuba lokufunjwa kweNorth Korea nguMzantsi Korea kunye nokuthunyelwa kwemikhosi yase-US kumda osemantla-mpuma weTshayina yimicimbi exhalabisa kakhulu (eBeijing). Iinkxalabo ezifanayo zanceda ukuba iTshayina ingene kwiMfazwe yaseKorea. Ngokuqinisekileyo iMoscow yabelana ngeenkxalabo zaseBeijing, kodwa iRussia ibonakala ingakulungelanga ukungenelela ukuba imeko iya isiba mandundu. Kule meko, ezi meko ziya kubangela ingxaki enkulu yamazwe ngamazwe.

Sukulindela uvukelo

Eyona nto sinokuyikhupha luhlobo oluthile lwemvukelo edumileyo yokubhukuqa ubuzwilakhe. Ulawulo lwengcinezelo lusebenza kangangokuba akukho nto inokwenzeka yokuququzelela inkcaso yangaphakathi ngaphandle kokuba ibonakaliswe ngokukhawuleza kwaye ichithwe. Nokuba kwimeko yengozi, ukuba nokwenzeka kokuhamba okuyimpumelelo akukho.

Intatheli yaseNew Zealand u-Anna Fifield, umbhali we-biography kaKim "indlalifa enkulu", oye waya eNyakatho Korea amatyeli amaninzi, uchaza le meko kudliwanondlebe ngolu hlobo: "Nangona abantu abaninzi baseMntla Korea bayala ingcamango yesithathu -inkokheli yesizukulwana kwaye yazi ukuba oko kuthethwa ngaye kuyingcamango Kusekho inkcaso eNorth Korea. Ayikho iSolzhenitsyn yaseKorea, akukho samizdat (uhlobo lokubhala nokupapasha ngokufihlakeleyo olwalusenziwa ngabavukeli beSoviet kwindawo eyayisakuba yi-USSR ngokuchasene nokuhlolwa kwabantu), nkqu nayo nayiphi na imibhalo.”

UFifield wongezelela: “Xa ndabuza ibhinqa elandixelela ngokuyigatya kwayo le nkqubo nokuba kutheni abantu baseMntla Korea bengazami ukwenza okuthile ngayo, yathi ukuba uyayichasa le nkqubo awuzami ukuyitshintsha, kodwa ukuba uyayichasa le nkqubo, awuzami ukuyitshintsha. uzama nje ukubaleka. Oku kungenxa yokuba inkqubo yesohlwayo saseNyakatho Korea inzima kakhulu: Ukuba uyayigxeka inkqubo, unokuthumela izizukulwana ezithathu zentsapho yakho kwi-gulag (inkampu yaseNyakatho Korea yeSoviet Union).

Umngcwabo omkhulu.. ngekamva elingaziwayo

Ngokwahlukileyo koko, ukuba uhlobo oluthile lwenguqu luyenzeka, luya kwenzeka ngamaxesha alungileyo. EMzantsi Korea, uMongameli oqhubela phambili u-Moon Jae-in, oxhasa ukusondelelana no-Pyongyang, waphinda wonyulwa ngesininzi esipheleleyo. I-White House ikwimo yoxolelwaniso emva kokuba uMongameli uDonald Trump ebhalele uKim Jong Un ngasekupheleni kuka-Matshi emnika uncedo lwase-US ekulweni i-coronavirus, ukunciphisa ukubakho kokubuyela umva. Mhlawumbi utshintsho oluthambileyo luya kwamkeleka kumazwe angaphandle. Ngapha koko, inokuthembela kwinkxaso evela kuyo yonke imida, phakathi kwamahlakani emveli asePyongyang naphakathi kwabakhuphisana nawo.

"Kulula ukuphosakela ngale nto," uJohn Delury, unjingalwazi wobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe kwiYunivesithi yaseYonsei eSeoul, uthi malunga nempilo kaKim Jong Un kwinqaku le-CNN. UKim uya kuchacha, ecinga ukuba ulwazi malunga notyando lwakhe ichanekile kwasekuqaleni, kodwa ngoku kukho inketho yokungakwenzi.

Sinokucinga, kule meko, ukuba uluntu lwaseNyakatho Korea luba ngumngcwabo omkhulu obonisa intlungu ekuhleni-yokwenene okanye ejoliswe kuyo-kwaye ibaxiwe kangangeentsuku, njengoko yenzayo emva kokufa kukayise notatomkhulu. Ukusuka apho okungaziwayo kuyaqala, kwaye mhlawumbi ihlabathi liphela linokuba ngcono ukuba liqalise ukucinga ngako.